It’s beginning to look a lot like a hectic holiday travel season, but it might go relatively smoothly if the weather cooperates.
Travel over Christmas and New Year’s tends to spread out over many days, so the peaks in the U.S. are likely to be lower than they were during the Thanksgiving holiday. That is making airlines and federal officials optimistic.
But the debacle at Southwest Airlines over Christmas last year should guard against overconfidence. Just this week, the Transportation Department announced a settlement in which Southwest will pay $140 million for that meltdown, which stranded more than 2 million travelers.
Travel at O'Hare, Midway Airports
So far this year, airlines have canceled 1.2% of U.S. flights, down nearly half from 2.1% over the same period last year. Cancellations were well below 1% during Thanksgiving, according to FlightAware.
As of 5 a.m. Thursday, O'Hare International Airport reported only one cancellation. Midway International Airport reported none.
“I don’t want to jinx us, but so far 2023 has seen the lowest cancellation rate in the last five years,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Tuesday. He added, however, that winter weather “will certainly be a challenge in the next few weeks.”
Local
Canceled flights surged last year, as airlines were caught short-staffed when travel rebounded from the pandemic more quickly than expected. Since then, U.S. airlines have hired thousands of pilots, flight attendants and other workers, and the cancellation rate has come down.
The low rate of cancellations over Thanksgiving is leading to hope that flying over Christmas and New Year’s will be tolerable.
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But even if cancellations remain low, flights will be packed, testing the patience of travelers and creating competition for space in overhead bins to store carry-on bags.
“Airline gate agents are getting demerits when planes are late, so they are gate-checking far more bags to keep flights on time,” said Pauline Frommer co-president of Frommers Travel Guides.
Frommer advises putting a smart tag in any bag that gets checked so you’ll know where it is, even if the airline doesn’t.
According to the Chicago Department of Aviation, 3.4 million passengers are expected to pass through both Chicago airports through Jan. 2, with Midway's busiest day expected to be the day after Christmas. At O'Hare, the busiest day was Wednesday, the CDA said.
Nationwide, the Transportation Security Administration expects that the busiest days for air travel will be Thursday, Friday and New Year’s Day. TSA expects to screen more than 2.5 million travelers each of those days — that’s still far short of the record 2.9 million that agents screened on the Sunday after Thanksgiving.
Flying is already surpassing pre-pandemic levels. The TSA has screened 12.3% more travelers than it had by this time last year and 1.4% more than in 2019. December is running about 6% above the same month last year.
What the roads will look like
AAA is forecasting that 115 million people will go 50 miles or more from home between Saturday and New Year’s Day. That is a 2% increase over the auto club’s forecast last year, although it would fall short of the record set in 2019.
Most of those people will drive, and they will save a bit on gasoline, compared with last Christmas. The nationwide average Wednesday was $3.08 a gallon, down 23 cents from a month ago and 6 cents from this time last year, according to AAA.
The busiest days on the roads nationwide will be Saturday and next Thursday, Dec. 28, according to transportation data provider INRIX.
Whether flying or driving, travelers should be keeping an eye on the weather forecast.
According to NBC 5 Storm Team, high temperatures are expected to be above average in Chicago and the Midwest through Christmas, but experts are still warning residents to be careful.
“We do know that a lot of people do take travel and trips by car," Travel expert and co-founder of Goose Insurance Omar Kaywan said. "And I think one thing we’re asking people to do is be aware, and although we’re dealing with milder weather this holiday than last year with snowstorms across the country, for people to still be careful. And Chicago being a main travel hub, we know a lot of airports, particularly O’Hare is going to be busy."
The Illinois Tollway says the heaviest holiday road travel will begin Wednesday through Friday, with 1.7 million drivers expected to hit the road each of those days.
Drivers could experience milder gas prices too, depending on where they stop.
“I was driving by and saw regular $2.99! I said 'oh man I’m going to fill up my car,'" said driver Idris Alabidun, who filled up his tank in Lincolnwood. “It’s been crazy for quite some time.”
Regular gas cost $2.99 per gallon at that location. In Lake County, some gas stations were spotted at $2.94 per gallon.
The average cost of a gallon of gas in Illinois is at $3.14, according to AAA.
Stations in Chicago and other parts of Cook County are driving up the average, however, with some charging closer to $4.00 per gallon.
According to GasBuddy Analyst Patrick De Haan, the last time gas prices were this low during Christmas was in 2020. The lowest average was in 2008 when prices hit $1.70 per gallon.
