The East and Gulf coast ports strike could be a no-win situation for the Biden administration

• President Joe Biden has said he will not intervene to force striking ILA union workers back on the job at East and Gulf coast ports, a political calculation that balances the power of unions ahead of a tight election with concerns about the economy, the No. 1 issue for many voters.
• Biden and top administration officials including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and acting Secretary of Labor Julie Su have focused more attention on the ocean carriers and "price gouging" since the strike began.
• If the union prevails in its battle for a large wage increase, there is the risk of a resumption of wage inflation that could upset the Fed's so-far successful efforts to tame inflation, though recent Fed concern has focused more on a potential labor slowdown than boom conditions.

President Joe Biden and his administration are sticking to their position of not invoking the Taft-Hartley Act to force International Longshoremen's Association dock workers back on the job at East and Gulf coast ports where a strike is hitting day two on Wednesday, a political decision that reflects the power of unions one month out from an election but risks losing some progress on what is the No. 1 issue for many voters: the economy.

Rhetoric from Cabinet secretaries, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and acting Labor Secretary Julie Su, has become sharper in recent days, pointing the finger at the ports ownership and ocean carriers. But right now, there is no sign of any progress bringing the ILA and port owners back to the table for a new round of negotiations, according to CNBC sources. And there remains a big risk on the other side of the political decision-making: wage increases that are a win for workers but ultimately ripple through the economy in the form of higher prices, both domestically and around the world.

Much of the focus about the economic impact of the ports strike to date has been focused on the direct hit to the economy from the massive trade shutdown, and the ways in which supply chain congestion and delays can result in higher prices being passed along to consumers, which will become a bigger factor the longer a strike persists. But maritime and business experts are also warning about the risk of persistent wage inflation making its way into supply chain prices that the Federal Reserve has recently been successful in taming.

"The wage increase would indeed be passed on and eventually be paid by the importers," said Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, a maritime shipping consultant. "The inflationary impact would vary dramatically depending on the value of the goods inside the container," he said, adding the influence would be an even bigger impact for agricultural exporters.

The ILA's president, Harold Daggett, is seeking a raise as high as $5 per hour, per year, over a six-year period in a new contract for union port workers in a labor battle with the United States Maritime Alliance. The USMX, which represents port ownership, last offered what it described as a nearly 50% wage increase over six years on Monday, an offer rejected by the union. The USMX reiterated that offer on Tuesday, saying in a statement that its "current offer of a nearly 50% wage increase exceeds every other recent union settlement, while addressing inflation, and recognizing the ILA's hard work to keep the global economy running."

But Daggett countered claims of any "significant increase," saying in the ILA's own Tuesday statement that the USMX "conveniently omit that many of our members are operating multi-million-dollar container-handling equipment for a mere $20 an hour. In some states, the minimum wage is already $15." The ILA president added that "the USMX also overlooks the fact that two-thirds of our members are constantly on call, with no guaranteed employment if no ships are being worked. Our members qualify for benefits only based on the hours they worked the previous year, making them vulnerable if there's a downturn in work."

Daggett told CNBC on Tuesday morning that the ILA is seeking a wage increase of 61.5%.

The USMX has not reached back out to the ILA with any new counteroffer, and the sides are not currently at the negotiating table, according to sources granted anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the labor discussions.

While a significant wage hike would undoubtedly be a big win for workers and a resurgent labor movement — which has used extreme terminology to tell Biden what it would think of a decision to intervene in the strike — with the union and port ownership group at an impasse, the ocean carriers have begun to take steps to protect their own financial position in the near term for as long as a strike persists. CMA CGM, one of the world's largest ocean carriers, declared a force majeure on Tuesday, a legal maneuver to free itself of contract requirements with shipping clients due to forces beyond its control, and said it "may charge any additional operational costs" associated with vessels delayed due to the strike to cargo on the water as of Oct. 1, 2024 with a U.S. East or Gulf coast port of discharge.

Biden said Tuesday that his administration will be "monitoring for any price gouging activity" that benefits foreign ocean carriers, including those on the USMX board. He also said "foreign ocean carriers have made record profits since the pandemic, when Longshoremen put themselves at risk to keep ports open."

Based on prior port strikes, ocean carriers normally profit from soaring freight rates based on demand for other ports as well as detention and demurrage fees on containers stranded during a ports shutdown. Analysts have been warning ocean spot rates could increase by 20%-50%. UBS forecast that 20% of Maersk's total volume would touch a U.S. port that would be impacted by the strike. Maersk is on the board of the USMX. UBS estimated that if freight rates increased 30% over two quarters, a revenue tail wind of more than $1 billion would be generated.

Buttigieg said Tuesday that the DOT is monitoring "any attempts by companies to opportunistically raise prices, including ocean shippers or others," and called on ocean carriers to withdraw surcharges. "No one should exploit a disruption for profit," he said in a DOT statement. He added that the Federal Maritime Commission will use expanded authority signed into law by Biden to "ensure any fees assessed are legitimate and lawful."

But the still more significant price hikes would occur after a successful deal for the ILA, according to some economists, even though the total number of workers involved in the strike, at around 50,000, is a blip in a U.S. labor market that employs well over 100 million people. It comes amid other union battles across the U.S. economy targeting aviation and automakers. "The scale of wage demands at the ports, at Boeing, and at autoworkers, make one laugh at the claims that the labor market is soft and that wage inflation is dead," said Larry Lindsey, CEO of The Lindsey Group.

Acting Labor Secretary Su lashed out at the idea that labor wage increases would be passed onto U.S. exporters and importers.

"At the same time that we were urging them to put a fair offer on the table to avoid all the disruption, they were calculating how much of a surcharge they could charge for shipping in light of a strike," said Su said in an interview. "I mean, it's really an outrageous position."

For months, logistics and business trade groups representing major industries from retail to manufacturing and agriculture have sent numerous letters to Biden and his administration urging intervention. Now, with the president sticking to his position that collective bargaining is the only means for a "fair deal" for the ILA, executives across the economy are beginning to weight the potential pricing impacts for their business models.

"It quickly renders our U.S. agriculture exports much less competitive in the global marketplace," said Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, of any logistics rate increases his sector would see. "Our foreign customers can satisfy their food, farm, and fiber needs from other countries, which is where they will go,  as costs of moving containers through U.S. ports continue to increase."

Su said she is very sympathetic to the needs of the business community, but stuck to the administration's position. "I've been in many conversations with them too," she said. "I understand just how important the impact of a good resolution is. I know they understand, just as consumers and American workers understand, that foreign companies who profit from our economy and who employ American workers and have an impact on American consumers should do the right thing, and in that battle, we are always going to stand with American workers, American businesses and American consumers."

The Federal Reserve has recently become more concerned about the labor market than inflation and has begun cutting interest rates to "recalibrate" its monetary policy in a bid to prevent a rise in layoffs and betting inflation is on its way back to 2%, which recent data supports. In the most recent nonfarm payrolls report for August, average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% on the month and 3.8% from a year ago, both higher than estimates. The September nonfarm payrolls report is due out Friday and in the short term, the union battle could influence the data on both wages and layoffs.

The big payroll report immediately ahead of the government data, the ADP private payrolls report, showed on Wednesday that while hiring increased, pay growth has continued to trend down. The annual gain for those remaining in their jobs decreased to 4.7%, while it fell even more for job switchers, to 6.6%, down 0.7 percentage point from August. The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report is the last the Fed will receive before its next interest rate policy decision in November, and it could include downward pressures in the labor market as well, influenced by both layoffs related to the strike and Hurricane Helene.

"This would just completely complicate everything that the Fed is trying to do because they're not getting a read to what the economy is actually performing," Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research, told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Tuesday.

In the longer-term analysis, the wage increase being sought by the union will confirm that wage growth is not going back to its pre-Covid trend, of about 2.5%, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. Instead, he estimates it will settle around 4%, which will put a floor under inflation.

"I continue to believe that after the disinflation plays out, which is mostly taking place in goods, 3-4% will be the normalized inflation rate," said Boockvar. "And this wage deal, when it happens, will result in goods prices to inflect higher."

At its recent September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Fed officials lowered their inflation outlook to 2.3% from 2.6% previously, and the central bank's own supply chain indicator has stabilized after the pandemic shocks. But its forecast of a long-run neutral rate near 2.9% has moved higher as the Fed continues to pursue its stated mandate of 2% inflation.

"For those dependent on functioning ports for their livelihood, the collateral damage is often underestimated by those watching from afar," said Alan Baer, CEO of logistics firm OL USA.  

On Wednesday, the National Retail Federation coordinated a coalition of 272 trade associations including manufacturers, farmers, wholesalers, retailers, restaurants, and importers and exporters, to send another letter to Biden pleading for him to end the strike.

Steve Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association, one of the groups which signed the letter, said it's imperative that the Biden administration use all the tools at its disposal, including its authorities under Taft-Hartley, to keep the parties at the negotiating table, the ports opened and goods moving efficiently. "Allowing the status quo to persist increases the likelihood that this port crisis will hurt our industry and the overall U.S. economy through job losses, higher prices, and goods shortages," said Lamar.

In December 2022, Biden signed legislation making a planned freight rail strike illegal, even though key issues sought by rail workers and their unions were not included in the bill. At that time, the president said it "helps our nation avoid what, without a doubt, would have been an economic catastrophe at a very bad time in the calendar."

That situation put "union Joe" Biden in a difficult position, but he said at the time of the signing that while his support for unions was as strong as ever, as president of the United States, rather than a single senator from Delaware, it was his job to look out for all Americans. 

— Reporting by CNBC's Jeff Cox contributed to this article.

Correction: Lars Jensen is CEO of Vespucci Maritime. An earlier version misspelled his name.