Ukrainian servicemen ride atop an armored personnel carrier vehicle in the Zaporizhzhia region on June 11, 2023.
- Ukraine's counteroffensive started last week but you'd be forgiven for having missed it.
- Any observers expecting more of a "big bang," dramatic start to the counteroffensive could have been left underwhelmed by its quiet launch and early progress.
- Defense experts say Kyiv is pursuing a strategy in which it is testing Russia's defenses and that larger-scale attacks will follow.
When Ukraine's counteroffensive started last week there was no fanfare or official announcement, but that wasn't entirely unexpected.
Kyiv had repeatedly insisted in the months up to the counteroffensive, as it pleaded for and awaited more weapons deliveries from its international allies, that it would not pre-announce the start of its actions aimed at retaking a swathe of Russian-occupied land in southern and eastern Ukraine.
Still, after its almost imperceptible launch and modest progress in recent days, plus reports of "extremely heavy" fighting and counterattacks by Russian forces around the few settlements Ukraine says it has recaptured, observers could be forgiven for feeling somewhat underwhelmed so far.
But military analysts say there's a reason that this latest counteroffensive is proceeding cautiously and that Kyiv has a strategy — that of probing for weaknesses along Russia's long and deep defensive lines, and that larger-scale attacks are expected to follow.
Certainly anyone expecting more of a "big bang" from this counteroffensive and for Ukraine to dramatically recapture a large amount of territory in quick time — similar to earlier successful counteroffensives in the northeast Kharkiv region last September or the southern Kherson region in the fall — is likely to be disappointed, analysts said.
"It is no surprise that Ukraine is being cautious," Nick Reynolds, research fellow for land warfare at the London-based defense and security think tank RUSI, told CNBC Thursday.
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"I would say that if this counter offensive doesn't ultimately result in a big bang, I don't think anyone should be really surprised. Perhaps they will be able to find certain weak points and take large amounts of ground or this could be a more incremental offensive," he noted, warning that Russia had re-postured its armed forces for defensive operations and that they are "much more effective on the defense."
Slow and steady ... wins the race?
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Only a handful of villages have been re-captured in modest advances made over the past week and there are reports that Russia is counterattacking and contesting several settlements that Ukraine has reclaimed.
Ukraine's relatively limited territorial gains so far also reaffirm previous expectations that an offensive in the south would be gradual and extremely difficult, especially without the air superiority, Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at Teneo, a political risk consultancy, told CNBC Thursday.
"The Russian side has been anticipating such an offensive for months and set up multi-layered and well-equipped defensive lines in the area," he said.
Defense analysts say Ukraine is carefully trying to probe the depth of Russian defenses, including miles of trenches, anti-tank ditches, dragons' teeth designed to block the path of military vehicles and other fortifications, predominantly located along the front line spanning from Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine to the Donbas in the east.
"Now we can see the first stage of this counteroffensive," Oleksandr Musiyenko, a military expert and head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies in Kyiv, told CNBC Tuesday.
"We are trying to find the weakest places in the Russian defense line. That's the first point. Also what I can say is that Ukrainian forces had some success, liberating some villages and territory around Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk ... and the counteroffensive also continues around Bakhmut," he said.
Ukrainian defense officials said earlier this week that seven settlements had been liberated in the last week of fighting in Donetsk and that the area of the territory now under control amounted to 90 square kilometers, or 35 square miles.
Nonetheless, Ukraine's deputy defense minister conceded Wednesday that the fighting was "extremely fierce" and that the counteroffensive had only had "partial success" so far. CNBC contacted Ukraine's defense ministry for further comment and is awaiting a response.
Musiyenko believed bigger attacks by Ukrainian forces were on the way and was optimistic that Russian defensive lines would be broken.
"We will see the main punches of Ukrainian forces in the nearest future. The main goal right now is to cut and destroy the land bridge to Crimea [referring to a swathe of land in southern and eastern Ukraine connecting mainland Russia to Russian-occupied Crimea] and to then move forward. Ukraine has also some prospects to move forward in the Donbas region and to liberate Bakhmut even."
"So we will see bigger attacks of Ukrainian forces in the near future, and also what's very important is that Russians have used all their reserves that they have already, but Ukraine hasn't," he added.
Great expectations
Ukraine has a lot to prove with this latest counteroffensive, having to show its international partners that the continued supply of NATO weaponry is worth it, used effectively and can be decisive in the outcome of the war.
U.S. State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller said Tuesday that the White House would not comment on "twists and turns of the counteroffensive or battlefield updates on what is obviously a very active and ongoing situation. We'll leave that to the Ukrainian military to speak to."
RUSI's Reynolds said that Western-donated weaponry wouldn't radically change Ukraine's performance on the battlefield, however.
"I think a lot of the capabilities they've been gifted have been useful but the Ukrainian military is still working to absorb a lot of the equipment it's been given, a lot of it's been provided piecemeal," he said, noting that, as such "we certainly shouldn't have expected any radically different performance based on sort of Western equipment."
Reynolds believed that much of the Western-donated equipment for Ukraine had been dictated by "what was convenient to the donor, as opposed to what Ukraine needed." And on top of the question of integrating new military hardware into its military operations, Ukraine was also challenged by the absorption of a huge amount of personnel, Reynolds noted.
"As [it's gone from a] much smaller military to one that's on a war footing, it's had to take in lots of brand new personnel and it's also taken very high casualties, I would say, which has resulted in further pressures," he said.
Analysts say there is a concern that Ukraine is under too much pressure to perform for its international partners who are, ultimately, sustaining its military efforts to repel Russia over the longer-term.
"The importance of Ukraine's counteroffensive is high, and so are the expectations," Teneo's Tursa noted, adding that, in this respect, "Ukraine has partially become a victim of its successful counteroffensives in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions last year."
"The long wait for Ukraine's latest offensive and the arrival of advanced Western weapons have further raised expectations and optimism, which might prove counterproductive for Kyiv in the long run," he noted.
RUSI's Reynolds agreed, noting that "I think expectations were set very, very high ... and I think they were too high."
"The risk is that the talk of the counteroffensive sets such unrealistic expectations that the Ukrainians are pressurised into taking operational risks, so I think perhaps a slow offensive is the smart thing to do."
