3 keys for Bears win on TNFfinal score prediction originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
When betting lines opened for this Thursday’s Bears game against the Commanders, the Bears found themselves home underdogs, despite Washington’s 1-4 record. Before long, however, the lines moved to make the Bears the favorites. That didn’t last either, and as of Wednesday afternoon the Bears were deemed dogs again. The roller coaster ride for oddsmakers could foreshadow how the game plays out in primetime. Neither team has looked consistently effective on offense or defense, which may lead to a back and forth affair. Here’s how the Bears can set themselves up to get back in the win column ahead of their pseudo bye-week.
TAKE SEVERAL DEEP SHOTS
The Commanders are one of the most susceptible teams to explosive pass plays in the NFL. The 9.7 average depth of target they allow is the highest in the league, and their 750 total air yards on passes allowed is fifth-highest. Part of that is due to disappointing play from William Jackson, who signed a three-year, $40.5-million extension last year. Jackson has allowed a 70.8% completion rate when targeted this season and Ron Rivera benched him partway through Week 5’s game against the Titans. Jackson was replaced by Benjamin St-Juste who has been much better, allowing just a 36% completion rate. But St-Juste has had issues of his own, missing tackles 11.8% of the time. No. 1 corner Kendall Fuller has been better in coverage, but even worse when it comes to bringing the ball carrier down, missing 13% of his tackles. Safeties Kamren Curl and Bobby McCain haven’t helped much either. The duo only has one pass defended between them. The Bears have not had the most aggressive passing attack this year, but they should take their chances on Thursday.
PRESSURE CARSON WENTZ UP THE MIDDLE
Just as the Commanders have shuffled their secondary, they’ve shuffled their interior line. And just like the lack of success in the secondary, the Commanders have struggled to protect Wentz up the middle. Left guard Andrew Norwell has allowed 10 pressures in 109 true pass set opportunities. Center Nick Martin has given up four in 40. Rookie Saadiq Charles drew his first start of the season at right guard last week, and he’s had the worst pressure rate of them all, allowing six pressures in 41 opportunities. Those types of rates make it hard for any quarterback to feel comfortable. Justin Jones hasn’t done enough to disrupt the quarterback with only seven pressures in five games, but if ever there was an opportunity to get going, this is it.
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PLAY CLEAN ON EARLY DOWNS
The Bears are not good enough on offense to overcome big mistakes, yet. Too often they’ve set themselves up for failure with things like pre-snap penalties or missed assignments that have led to big sacks. When they do it spells trouble for the drive as a whole. On the other hand, when the Bears have managed to play clean football to give themselves more favorable scenarios, they’ve come away with more points, more often. Last week, on drives when the Bears committed a major mistake on first or second down they averaged 1.8 points. On drives where they didn’t hurt themselves that number jumped to 4.3 points. With that type of disparity, the team will need to make sure they don’t beat themselves on Thursday night.
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BEARS-COMMANDERS FINAL SCORE PREDICTION
Playing at home should help the team get back on track, and commit fewer unforced errors. The Commanders are also one of the worst teams they’ll face all season, so it’s a great opportunity to win. The Bears don’t squander it.
Bears: 20, Commanders: 16
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