Economists say inflation has cooled, and yet, consumers' grocery bills are likely higher than they were pre-pandemic. So, what’s the disconnect? And how will that change under the next president?
Prices of the basics, like eggs, bread and meat have gone up and down in recent years. Federal data shows overall, food prices are up more than 25 percent since 2019. Higher prices have been driven by COVID-19 supply changes, the war in Ukraine and animal diseases like the bird flu.
Despite promises given by the presidential candidates seen on the campaign trail, experts are providing a word of caution.
"I think it is important that consumers understand that we're not going back to 2019 food prices. That's not happening," said Maria Kalaitzandonakes, an assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural & Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
"Can politicians walk into office, flip a switch and lower food prices? No, that's just not reality. It's going to be a complex, long, difficult process of addressing a variety of issues," said Jonathan Coppess, an associate professor of agricultural law and policy at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
Together, Kalaitzandonakes and Coppess have conducted surveys to gage perceptions of inflation, an issue that polling has shown is top of mind for voters.
Their research shows consumers strongly believe politicians can lower food prices. Additionally, consumers who prefer former President Donald Trump strongly believe only Republicans can accomplish that, while consumers who prefer Vice President Kamala Harris strongly believe only Democrats can lower food prices.
"One thing that's fascinating about these findings … is just how much it reflects our polarized political environment,” Coppess said.
Adding to that, research has shown inflation hits rural areas harder than urban areas, in large part because of transportation costs.
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"You think about the food system itself and the long supply chains from the farmer all the way to the grocery store at the restaurant. There are a lot of players in those food chains now that have their own factors going into it," Coppess said.
Now, as the countdown continues toward Election Day, no magic wand will be waved to lower prices. However, one thing experts said politicians can do is improve affordability, especially for those feeling the most crunch.
"How many hours are you working to afford that same grocery bill? What proportion of your income is that grocery bill? That's a bigger picture of affordability, and it also doesn't just include food. It includes things like housing and daycare and other issues that are sort of central to voters right now," Kalaitzandonakes said.
Candidates on the campaign trail do focus on different economic priorities to which consumers should pay attention.
"Depending on how tariffs are implemented or what products they hit, it's going to have a major impact on your cost. Going after issues like profiteering and price gouging: How is that going to impact what a company is going to charge or how those supply chains challenges get put into the grocery bill?" Coppess said.
