As Illinois’ population has declined year after year, the number – and proportion – of Latino residents across the state has skyrocketed, giving the demographic group an ever-growing political power that experts say is underutilized.
The 2010 Census showed an increase of nearly 500,000 Latino residents in Illinois, up 32.5% from 2000. In 2020, Census data showed another increase of more than 300,000 Latinos in Illinois – growing the Latino share of the state’s population from 15.8% to 18.2% even as Illinois’ overall population continued to fall.
Northwestern University political science professor Jaime Dominguez said that growth of Illinois’ Latino population has been happening for decades.
“The Latino population is the number one growing demographic in the state,” Dominguez said. "It has been, particularly over the last 20 years. In fact, the Latino population particularly in Chicago in 2000 actually was able to prevent the city from losing another congressional seat as a result of the growth of the population, so politically it’s been significant.”
Between 2010 and 2020, the number of Latinos over the age of 18 in Illinois increased by almost 316,000, up roughly 24%. And as of 2021, roughly 72% of the state’s voting-age Latinos were U.S. citizens, with the percentage of Illinois Latinos born in the U.S. increasing by nearly 29% over the previous decade, data shows.
But even though the demographic is growing, experts said that often doesn’t translate to higher Latino turnout come election season.
“The voter power potential of Latinos is huge, just because of the growing number of eligible voters, but I believe that it's a voter power potential that is underutilized,” said the Latino Policy Forum’s Vice President of Civic Engagement José Marco-Paredes.
Chicago Politics
In the 2023 Chicago mayoral election, a University of Illinois Chicago study estimated just 20.5% of Latino registered voters cast ballots, compared to 61.1% of white voters.
Experts said there are two main reasons for the disproportionately low turnout, with the first being age.
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“The growing numbers of eligible voters in the Latino community is those age groups that are less likely to vote, which is from 18 to 35. And that is very different from other ethnic and racial groups in which their percentage of eligible voters are more in the 55 and older age group, which historically have voted more,” Marco-Paredes said.
“Young people just don't tend to vote at levels that other older people do,” Dominguez said. “That's something that I think is always going to be unique to the Latino political collective. Yes, the growth is coming, but it's coming from young people.”
The second reason is a lack of outreach from candidates and campaigns, experts said.
A 2023 Northwestern poll conducted during the Chicago mayoral race found 47% of Latinos said they had not been contacted by either candidate or any local organization about voting. That was the highest figure of any demographic group.
“Obviously there is work that we need to do so the Latino community is more engaged, but there's also a responsibility on the different campaigns and different parties of reaching out in a meaningful way in a group of eligible voters that could be decisive in the elections,” Marco-Paredes said.
But just like every other demographic group in America, Latino voters do not behave as a monolith, and the kind of outreach matters.
“There is a common misunderstanding that immigration is the only issue, the only topic that really interests the Latino community,” Marco-Paredes said. “It’s just not true.”
“They're interested in kitchen table issues,” Marco-Paredes continued. “Am I going to be able to pay my rent? Can I send my children to a good school? Is my neighborhood safe?”
“It's what every voter in America wants. The economy, health care, education. I mean, those are the top three issues that, when it comes to voter preferences and policy, Latinos are no different than any other group in the United States when it comes to that,” Dominguez said.
Experts said the Latino community, particularly in Chicago, has always been civically engaged and active in organizing on a grassroots level. But there’s work to be done to see that same participation on Election Day.
“They could be very decisive in the elections and that's something that honestly we're not seeing, unfortunately, and that we all have a responsibility in,” Marco-Paredes said.
“At the end of the day, it's about going to the ballot box,” Dominguez said. “That's the way that you put pressure on the system. That's where you put pressure on institutions that make decisions and elites behind those institutions that make those decisions. So it definitely matters.”
