From New York City to Hollywood, celebrities are often asked to use their influence for political campaigns. But can they affect election outcomes?
Craig Garthwaite, a professor of strategy at Northwestern University, got the opportunity to answer that question after the 2008 primary when Oprah Winfrey endorsed Barack Obama for president.
"You see sort of smart academics say, 'Well, endorsements don't matter. They're not a big deal.' Then you see experts and people in political campaigns for whom time is their most valuable resource spending so much effort to get these endorsements. So, we had this puzzle: Well, if they don't work, why are all the people trying to get them?" Garthwaite said.
When it's the beauty industry, food and beverages or clothing, celebrities have been promoting products for more than a century.
"The pope back in the day endorsed an alcoholic beverage, a mixture of like Coca-Cola and wine together, one of the first sort of celebrity endorsers that we see," Garthwaite said.
Celebrities' involvement in politics also has a rich history, dating back at least to the 1920 presidential campaign of Warren Harding, who was endorsed by film stars like Al Jolson and Mary Pickford. More recently, George Clooney's July op-ed in The New York Times was key to the dominoes falling for President Joe Biden, changing the course of the presidential race forever.
However, the question remains: Do celebrities affect election outcomes?
Using subscriptions to Winfrey's magazine and sales of books she recommended, Garthwaite's research found that Winfrey's endorsement led to about a million additional votes for Obama, ultimately helping him win the primary against Hillary Clinton.
People may not remember just how popular Winfrey was in the early 2000s, providing life advice on her talk show and playing a role in viewers' daily lives. Her "Favorite Things" list also demonstrates her ability to affect her fans' purchasing decisions.
"She is, at the time, and probably until today, a celebrity of unparalleled influence in the market," Garthwaite said.
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In the 24 hours after Taylor Swift endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in September, nearly 406,000 people clicked on her link to Vote.Gov to find out where to register to vote.
"If you look at the popularity of Taylor Swift globally now, she's probably the closest thing we have to someone that has the reach of Oprah Winfrey – if you look at things like her album sales or tickets for her concerts," Garthwaite said.
Former President Donald Trump has received endorsements of his own, including Hulk Hogan and Elon Musk, who has the power to control what information voters see on the social media site X. Musk recently appeared at a campaign rally with Trump in in Butler, Pennsylvania.
A poll in September from Quinnipiac University found that 64 percent of likely voters say Musk’s endorsement of Trump does not make a difference in their level of enthusiasm about Trump's candidacy, while 13 percent say it makes them more enthusiastic and 21 percent say it makes them less enthusiastic about Trump's candidacy.
Look no further than Michael Jordan to see the downsides to endorsing. Jordan famously once said "Republicans buy sneakers, too" when asked to endorse a Democrat in a North Carolina Senate race.
"Celebrities definitely have to weigh this question of, 'Do I want to get involved in controversial matters that will affect my popularity?'" Garthwaite said.
The band the Chicks also faced backlash for speaking out against George Bush in 2004. Swift has cited that tale as a reason she didn't get involved in politics prior to 2018.
The Quinnipiac poll found that 76 percent of likely voters say Swift's endorsement of Harris does not make a difference in their level of enthusiasm about Harris' candidacy, while 9 percent say it makes them more enthusiastic and 13 percent say it makes them less enthusiastic about Harris' candidacy.
"In this case, it's not hard to imagine given Taylor Swift's roots in country music and Tennessee … that there will be a lot of people who are fans of hers who are also supporters of President Trump," Garthwaite said.
Swift is an apples-to-oranges comparison to Winfrey because Winfrey was out on the campaign trail stumping for Obama, unlike Swift, and that was during a primary with candidates whose policies were closely aligned, unlike Trump and Harris.
But will the pop star affect the 2024 general election?
Garthwaite's verdict: Yes, it's likely, but not in the way voters may think.
"[She] could have a really big impact, if not on moving people from President Trump to Vice President Harris, certainly on getting people to show up to vote for Vice President Harris," Garthwaite said.
