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Investing experts: Lock in a guaranteed 5% return before the Fed slashes interest rates

Investing experts: Lock in a guaranteed 5% return before the Fed slashes interest rates
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It's generally wise for long-term investors to ignore market-watchers' near-term prognostications. After all, if you're saving for a goal decades in the future, it doesn't much matter what stocks will do over the next six months.

But chances are you have some short-term goals, too. If you're saving to purchase a home, car or even a fancy vacation in the next three to five years, things like inflation and the direction of interest rates can make a big difference to the price you eventually pay and how much you're able to save.

With inflation finally beginning to cool of late, experts expect the Federal Reserve to begin trimming its benchmark interest rate. For consumers, that generally means lower rates on debt, from car loans to credit cards to mortgages.

For savers, it means earning less on interest-paying vehicles such as bonds, cash accounts and certificates of deposit. But right now, there's plenty of yield to be had. Versions of all three vehicles currently offer guaranteed interest rates north of 5%.

For certain savers, it may be wise to lock in a relatively high interest rate on short- to medium-term investments, says Amy Arnott, a portfolio strategist with Morningstar Research Services.

"It makes sense, especially if you're trying to save for a specific goal," she says. "You could hold a bond with a maturity that matches the timing of your goal."

Why it makes sense to lock in higher rates now

For years, when interest rates were near zero, it was hard to earn practically anything on a short-term bond or cash account.

"For the past couple of years, we've had higher yields available on very short-term securities, like cash," says Arnott. "And you can still get about 5.4% on a three-month Treasury bill, which is pretty attractive, compared to where we were before. But eventually, that will decline."

That decline may be coming sooner rather than later, says Christopher R. Jackson, senior vice president of UBS Wealth Management.

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"The economy is slowing and inflation is moderating," he says. "I do think that leads to interest rate cuts in the U.S. [in the second half of 2024]. You've seen some cuts already overseas."

Given that outlook, Jackson sees a compelling case for locking in an attractive rate of return by investing in bonds.

"It's pretty easy to get 5% or 6% in high-quality bonds with a 5- or 10-year maturity, which is a contractual return," he says. "That's probably not a whole lot less than what we would expect from stocks over the next five to 10 years, with a whole lot less risk."

How to invest for short- and medium-term goals

A quick reminder on how bonds work. When buying a bond, you effectively loan money to a business or government. You agree to a certain amount of time they can hang on to your money and an interest rate you'll be paid, known as a bond's coupon. You receive interest payments at predetermined intervals, and when the time period ends (the bond reaching maturity), you get your principal back.

Typically, the more risk a bond carries, the higher the interest you can earn. Bonds issued by low-quality companies often pay handsome rates, but carry a high risk of default, hence their nickname, "junk bonds."

Jackson currently favors highly rated debt issued by corporations, which tends to yield more than similarly dated government debt. These may not be a terrific buy for retail investors, though, says Arnott.

"For the average individual investor, you would probably want to buy Treasurys instead of corporates, because you would have to do a lot of additional research to make sure you're not taking on too much credit risk [to buy corporate bonds], she says. "And then you would also want to have a diversified portfolio of corporate bonds, which could involve a lot of extra complexity."

Treasury bonds are backed by the U.S. government, and therefore carry virtually no risk of default. Buying one, either directly from the Treasury or through your brokerage account, guarantees you a locked-in return over the period you select.

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