The threat of a government shutdown is becoming more real every day and we’re only hours away from it becoming a reality and major national disruption. But what will it mean for you? NBC correspondent Noah Pransky explains.
With gridlock persisting in Washington, a government shutdown is looking more and more likely ahead of Saturday night’s deadline.
As the Senate marches ahead with a bipartisan approach aimed at keeping the government open, spending measures are still struggling to pass the Republican-controlled House. If a shutdown arrives, millions of federal employees will be furloughed and many others — including those working in the military and the Transportation Security Administration — will be forced to work without pay until it ends.
A handful of federal programs that people nationwide rely on everyday could also be disrupted — from dwindling funds for food assistance to potential delays in customer service for recipients of Medicare and Social Security. The ripple effects would come down to how long the shutdown lasts and varying contingency plans in place at impacted agencies.
“Collectively, hundreds of millions of Americans, a majority of the population, are receiving some kind of benefits from the government,” said Forrest V. Morgeson III, an associate professor at Michigan State University’s Broad College of Business. He noted a potential shutdown could bring significant financial uncertainty and economic implications down the road.
Here’s what you need to know.
Will SNAP be affected by a government shutdown? What about WIC?
A government shutdown could risk millions of low-income Americans’ access to food and nutrition assistance programs — with impacts depending on how long the shutdown lasts and program-by-program contingency funds.
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Nearly 7 million women and children who rely on the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) could be at risk of losing assistance almost immediately into a shutdown, according to the Biden Administration. That’s because the federal contingency fund supporting normal WIC operations will likely run out in a matter of days — pushing states to rely on their own money or carryover funds.
Impacted families are “going to be going to food pantries,” said Dr. Nancy Nielsen, senior associate dean for health policy at the University at Buffalo’s Jacobs School of Medicine & Biomedical Sciences. “These are people who need the help. These are moms. These are infants. So this is a real problem.”
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Families who receive benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program could also lose assistance if a shutdown drags out for a more significant period of time. According to the Agriculture Department, regardless of what happens in Washington this weekend, households will receive SNAP assistance as usual through October.
What about Head Start programs and free school lunch?
Head Start programs serving more than 10,000 disadvantaged children would immediately lose federal funding, although they might be able to stave off immediate closure if the shutdown doesn’t last long.
Those 10 programs, which are located in Alabama, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts and South Carolina, serve just a fraction of the 820,000 children enrolled in the program at any given time.
Tommy Sheridan, the deputy director for the National Head Start Association, said the programs are in trouble because their grants start on Oct. 1. Programs with grants that don’t start on that date will continue getting money. But if the shutdown drags on, the number of affected programs will grow as more grants come up for renewal.
Beyond Head Start, concerns have also arisen around free school meals. But the Agriculture Department says it does not anticipate any immediate issues with federal child nutrition programs, including school meals because support for these programs is provided in part by a permanent and mandatory funding authority.
In the event of a government shutdown, state and federal operations for child nutrition are set to continue through October and potentially a few months beyond that, according to the department. But the department would not be able to support these programs for the full year without appropriations.
Will I continue to receive Social Security checks?
Regardless of what happens in Washington this weekend, Social Security and Supplemental Security Income recipients will continue to receive payments. But response times for people with issues could be delayed due to furloughs.
“If you have a question about Social Security, you may not be able to find anybody to answer your questions,” Nielsen said. “But the everyday transactions of sending checks out will still continue.”
According to a recent contingency plan from the Social Security Administration, the agency will cease non-critical actions and those “not directly related to the accurate and timely payment of benefits.” The issuance of new social security cards and replacements will continue.
Would a shutdown impact Medicare and other health services?
Medicare and Medicaid benefits will also continue — as both are mandatory programs funded separately from annual appropriations. That means that patients should still be able to see their doctors and have medical bills paid.
But, similar to Social Security, there could be delays and disruptions to customer service due to furloughs. According to contingency details published by the Health and Human Services Department last week, about half of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services is set to be furloughed in the event of a lapse of appropriations.
Beyond Medicare and Medicaid, health care services for veterans are set to continue in the event of a shutdown. The majority of programs funded by the Indian Health Service would also remain in operation and IHS has received advanced appropriations for the 2024 fiscal year, per a recent contingency plan.
How could flights and other travel be impacted?
The nation’s air-travel system is expected to operate relatively normally during a shutdown. Air traffic controllers and TSA screeners are deemed essential workers — however, those people won’t be paid until the shutdown ends, and TSA lines could grow longer if enough screeners stay home.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Wednesday that air travel will remain safe in a shutdown, but that the training of new air traffic controllers will stop and 1,000 trainees will be furloughed.
Long before this week’s deadline, airlines were already been complaining that a shortage of air traffic controllers has been causing flight delays and cancellations. The Federal Aviation Administration said in August it hired 1,500 new controllers in the past year and asked Congress for money to hire another 1,800 in the new fiscal year.
The processing of passports and visas will continue in a shutdown “as the situation permits,” according to guidance that the State Department gave employees last week. The department said consulates in the U.S. and abroad will say open “as long as there are sufficient fees to support operations,” but passport work could stop if the building where the work is done gets shuttered.
The time it takes to get a passport or visa already is much longer than before the pandemic. Most Customs and Border Protection agents are also considered essential and would be expected to work at airports and border crossings.
Could there be student loan disruptions?
If spending measures aren’t passed by Saturday’s deadline, the government shutdown would start the same day that student loans emerge from the pandemic pause after beginning to accrue interest again on Sept. 1.
But, shutdown or not, borrowers’ payments will still be due. For the most part, loan servicers will be able to continue to process payments regularly — but there could be delays for those who need to consult with or seek help from the Education Department due to the potential of agency furloughs.
Students applying for federal aid during a shutdown can expect similar delays because of this. Officials have pointed to potential disruptions to processing FAFSA applications, disbursing Pell Grants and pursuing public loan forgiveness, for example.
Would mail services slow down?
The United States Postal Service will not be affected by a government shutdown. The Postal Service doesn’t rely on taxpayer dollars because it generally gets its funding through the sales of products and services.
What about National Parks?
Entrances to national parks will be blocked and thousands of park rangers will be furloughed if Congress doesn’t reach a budget agreement this weekend, the Department of Interior said Friday.
The stance is a reversal from five years ago when the Trump administration kept some iconic parks open in a move that has been lambasted as illegal by the Government Accountability Office, the congressional watchdog.
This time around, the majority of more than 420 national park units will be off-limits to the public, Interior officials said. The governors of Arizona and Utah vowed to keep some of the most iconic parks open with state funding, including Grand Canyon and Zion.
Whether tourists can access other national parks will depend on size, location and other factors. Generally, if a site is closed or locked during non-business hours it will remain that way, Interior officials said. Places like the National Mall will stay open, but there are no guarantees that restrooms or trash will be maintained.
What are they fighting over?
At its core, the conflict is over how far to the right House Republicans should push legislation — and what level of compromise, if any, is acceptable.
Pragmatic-minded Republicans acknowledge they hold just one chamber of Congress and must negotiate legislation with a Democratic president and the Democratic-held Senate. But some conservatives, organized around the House Freedom Caucus — as well as the score of Republicans who opposed Kevin McCarthy’s bid to become speaker — have taken combative stands as they try to disrupt business as usual in Washington.
They are determined to not only slash spending levels but remake the U.S. government, which they view with growing enmity and criticize as “woke and weaponized.” Some conservatives have downplayed the effects of a government shutdown and even contend that it would have benefits.
“The Biden regulatory agenda comes to a grinding halt with a government shutdown,” Russell Vought, an influential strategist among the right-wing lawmakers, posted on social media this week.
In the current clash over funding the government, the debate has centered on whether Congress should use stopgap funding legislation to keep government offices running and paychecks for federal employees flowing beyond Sept. 30, when the government’s fiscal year expires.
What is McCarthy Doing?
McCarthy is urging his fellow House Republicans to avoid the political pain of causing a shutdown as he tries to protect his narrow House majority. But because Republicans had such a slim majority to begin with, even a handful of holdouts can demand concessions or prevent the party from moving forward on legislation.
In his eight months as speaker, McCarthy has at times surprised Washington with his ability to maneuver with his fragile majority. But now that he is facing a government shutdown, he is caught between commitments he made during the two major crises Congress faced this year: the fight over choosing a House speaker and negotiations to suspend the nation’s debt limit.
McCarthy had to win support from almost every House Republican in his grueling bid to become speaker in January. To do so, he made a range of concessions, including an agreement to cut government spending to certain levels and pass each of the 12 annual appropriations bills individually.
Then in June, as he negotiated with President Joe Biden to suspend the nation’s debt limit, McCarthy agreed to hold the government’s annual discretionary funding to $1.59 trillion. That deal passed the House, in part due to support from Democrats.
“He’s made promises to part of the conference with the deal that he cut with President Biden on certain numbers,” said Republican Rep. Ken Buck, who is part of the House Freedom Caucus. “Then he’s made promises to get elected speaker to a different part of the conference. And those two numbers are pretty far apart.”
McCarthy’s allies have insisted the speaker has kept his word and is still fighting for the spending levels he promised Republicans in January.
How will the standoff end?
A government shutdown is almost inevitable at this point. But the duration of the shutdown, as well as the future of McCarthy’s speakership, is impossible to predict.
For now, McCarthy is still searching for support from his own party, hoping he can leverage his thin majority to force negotiations with Democrats. But the Senate is working on a temporary, bipartisan funding plan that is likely to pass in the coming days, adding more pressure on McCarthy to work with Democrats to avert a shutdown.
If McCarthy works with Democrats, Gaetz has promised he’ll try to oust McCarthy by filing a so-called “ motion to vacate the chair.” Procedural votes could be offered to halt the motion, or it could trigger a House floor vote on whether McCarthy should remain speaker.
Some House Democrats have signaled a willingness to help McCarthy remain speaker if conservatives try to oust him, though they’ll likely want something in return.
If McCarthy refuses to support a bipartisan plan, some moderate House Republicans are considering joining with Democrats to force a vote on such a bill.
Either development would be extraordinary in modern politics and could send the House into even more turmoil.
