With the Chicago Cubs controlling their own destiny in the Central Division race, the attention of fans and media alike is turning to a very important question as October looms:
Who will make the team’s 25-man playoff roster?
Naturally, a lot of the decisions will come down to the final days of the season, as fringe players either earn their way onto the roster with solid play or lose their spots because of lackluster results. In the meantime, it seems like a good time to check in on the strategies that Joe Maddon, Theo Epstein, and the rest of the coaching staff and front office could employ as the playoffs near.
Catcher:
At some points during the season, there was speculation that Miguel Montero could be on the fringe of making the playoff roster. His offensive production was down, his caught-stealing rate was abysmally low, and Willson Contreras seemed to be a better option behind the dish, even with Montero’s ability to frame pitches and get key strike calls.
As the season has worn on however, Montero has hit himself back into the ranks of the virtual locks for the playoff roster. His veteran influence could be key for a pitching staff that is one of, if not the best, in baseball, and it’s hard to imagine the team leaving him off.
David Ross will obviously make the cut as well, as Jon Lester isn’t going to want to go into the playoffs needing to learn how to pitch to another catcher.
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Finally, Contreras himself has a great chance of making it, but isn’t a guaranteed lock. A lot of that will depend on whether the Cubs decide to keep 12 or 13 pitchers on their roster, and whether they decide that they absolutely have to find room for a player like Tommy La Stella or Chris Coghlan on their postseason roster.
Infield:
The infield is loaded with easy decisions, as Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, and Ben Zobrist are all absolute locks to make the postseason roster.
Where things get a bit more interesting is the decision on whether to keep La Stella in the mix. As a lefty bat off the bench, La Stella has a penchant for making solid contact, and Maddon may want to keep him around in a bench role if the Cubs go up against a righty-heavy pitching rotation in the postseason.
Outfield:
The outfield has three absolute roster locks, with Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, and Jorge Soler all guaranteed to make the team. After that, things get a lot more interesting in terms of who stays and who goes.
At this point in the season, the Cubs likely have three options for what will ultimately only be one or two spots. Matt Szczur is an interesting candidate for the roster, as his speed and right-handed bat could appeal to Maddon and the coaching staff. Coghlan is also a possibility, as the Cubs seem perfectly happy to have him around as a left-handed hitting option that can fit in either corner outfield spot.
The wild card in the mix is Albert Almora, Jr. The Cubs’ outfield defense was a big question mark during the National League Championship Series last year, and Almora is certainly a better defensive option than either Szczur or Coghlan. The real question for the Cubs would be whether they’re willing to leave a pitcher off the staff in order to have a stellar defensive substitute on the bench.
Starting Pitching:
The four starting pitchers for the postseason are all but locked into stone, and now it’s just a matter of who pitches in which game. With the way things are trending right now, it certainly seems like Jon Lester would be the Game 1 starter for the Cubs, but it will be interesting to see who pitches in a Game 2 scenario.
Will it be Kyle Hendricks, who has the best ERA in baseball and has been virtually unbeatable at Wrigley Field this season? Or will it be Jake Arrieta, who has had some command issues but still has really solid numbers and a hunger to prove that last season’s postseason stumble was merely a fluke?
John Lackey will certainly round out the Cubs’ rotation, and as he finds his way into form, it’s hard to imagine a better four-man rotation in the game right now.
Bullpen:
The key to the entire playoff roster is going to revolve around which pitchers find roles waiting for them in the bullpen. Guys like Aroldis Chapman, Pedro Strop, and Hector Rondon are all locks to make the roster for the playoffs, and pitchers like Justin Grimm and Carl Edwards Jr. have all but punched their tickets as well by virtue of their stellar pitching down the stretch this season.
Along with the starters, that would leave nine pitchers on the Cubs’ staff, and the real question would be whether there will be three or four more hurlers joining that group. Travis Wood would almost certainly make the cut, but his struggles against right-handed hitters could force the Cubs to include an extra pitcher to go up against righties in the postseason.
That role conceivably could fall to Joe Smith, whose specialty during his career has been inducing ground balls from right-handed batters. He has struggled at times with his command this season, giving up a good number of home runs in the process, but he has looked better in recent weeks and could earn himself a spot on the staff.
If both of those players make it, then there will likely be one or two more bullpen spots up for grabs. Starting pitcher Jason Hammel could be chosen as a long-relief option out of the bullpen, but with his recent struggles, the team may opt to sit him in favor of a more consistent producer.
If that’s the case, then players like Trevor Cahill and Mike Montgomery will certainly be considered for the role of long reliever. Montgomery would seem to have the edge there, but Cahill could make a strong push in the season’s closing weeks.
Youngsters like Felix Pena and Rob Zastryzny have been very solid pitchers for the Cubs in the regular season, but both would seem to be long-shots to make the postseason roster.
