Best plan to divide pitching workload: 'Who the hell knows' originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
MESA, Ariz. — Zach Davies figures he has the kind of veteran experience to make jumping from less than 70 innings last year back to a full starting workload in 2021 a reasonable expectation.
Kyle Hendricks, who was one of only three in the majors last year to pitch 80 innings, said he figures he has prepared his body well enough over the winter to handle a full workload again.
And their Cubs manager, David Ross, figures, well, “I don’t know.”
Ross’ opinion on what the final numbers for starting pitchers this year will look like after a pandemic-shortened, 60-game season in 2020 is the prevailing opinion in front offices and pitching labs across baseball this spring.
“Who the hell knows what to expect?” said one long-time American League evaluator, who is also a former major-league pitcher. “Nobody in the game knows that.”
It’s the most puzzling part of putting together rosters and projecting fatigue and injury risks as teams make plans for the unprecedented leap from 60 games to 162.
Do you go to a six-man rotation to lessen the workloads? Not the Cubs. They plan to open with a typical five-man starting staff — but off days early in the season will create between-starts rest patterns similar to a six-man crew.
Do the Cubs limit innings per start? Maybe. Do they use piggyback assignments to split, say, seven innings of work between two “starters”? Probably. Do they add spot starts for a sixth man at times later in the season? Definitely.
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“We’re going to be creative,” said pitching coach Tommy Hottovy, who, like Ross, ruled out a six-man rotation to open, in large part because that could create too much down time for some starters early.
“We’ll make these decisions as we get going,” he said. “If we have a long stretch between off days, maybe there’s an opportunity to give a guy a start in that, kind of, sixth spot. Maybe there’s an opportunity to piggyback guys depending on how we want to handle this.
“It’s a long season, and to say [early in spring] what we think we’re going to do vs. what is actually going to happen — it could be so different.”
For now, Hendricks, Jake Arrieta and Davies are penciled into the top three spots in the rotation, with newcomer Trevor Williams, no-hit holdover Alec Mills and rookie Adbert Alzolay in the mix for the two other spots.
And keep an eye on non-roster right-hander Shelby Miller, the one-time All-Star who looks healthy and strong enough in the early going to suggest he might make the roster as a swingman, if not elbow his way into the fifth-starter mix.
Obviously, several pitchers beyond whoever makes the opening five-man rotation will be in a regular mix for starts and/or multiple-inning piggyback assignments.
What could that mean for how many wind up with 30 starts — even the typically efficient Hendricks — after such a short season?
“I’m going to pitch every five days and pitch until Rossy takes the ball out of my hands,” said Davies, who pitched four scoreless innings Monday for a Cubs staff that has allowed just one run in 18 starter innings so far this spring (emphasis on “spring”).
“If you’re performing, you’ll be out there. That’s my mindset,” he added. “With some guys that haven’t pitched as much it might be a little bit different. But I’ve pitched for 10 or so years now in affiliated ball. So I know what needs to be done; I know how to take care of my body between starts.”
He might be right (emphasis on “might”). Teams such as the Cubs certainly view veteran pitchers with more six-month confidence than, say, Alzolay, who pitched only 21 1/3 innings in 2020, when there was no minor-league season.
“These guys train to get 33, 34 starts in,” Hottovy said. “So they’re going to really want to do that. At some point we can have all these thoughts on, ‘this guy’s only going to get 28 starts, this guy’s going to get 25 starts.’ But in the end, the communication is the biggest thing, and how a guy feels. If he needs an extra day, we’re going to build in those extra days.”
The trend across the game in recent years as gone in the direction of using off days on the schedule to create extra rest for rotation regulars rather than skip fifth starters. So the baseline to use a sort of “taxi squad” of starters beyond the first five to drop into heavy parts of the schedule to add more of those scenarios already exists.
Hottovy said communication with his starters as well as what the advanced pitching technology is telling the team about possible fatigue will all go into decisions that are made as the season progresses.
“Right now I think you’re going to see Adbert make starts during the season, and I think you’ll probably see him make relief appearances in the season,” Hottovy said.
“I think you can say that about 10 guys we have in camp.”
