What to expect from Michael Kopech in 2022 originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
What to expect from Michael Kopech in 2022?
There might be no more difficult-to-answer question — aside from when this blasted lockout is going to end — about the Chicago White Sox than that one.
Kopech was good, quite good, in 2021. After missing back-to-back seasons, he was sent to the bullpen, where the team could monitor his workload and help ease him into regular major league use. Of course, the flame-throwing stuff that made him one of the more exciting young players of the White Sox' rebuilding project made him one of Tony La Russa's go-to relievers, and for the most part, he was lights out in that role.
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A promotion to the rotation was inevitable, and now Kopech will get his chance, a lower pressure one, at that, considering the arms around him on the starting staff. Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease and Dallas Keuchel — the last being experienced if not currently popular in certain segments of the fan base — provide plenty of oomph, enough that Kopech won't be expected to carry a championship load all by himself and can focus on developing into the top-of-the-rotation starter the White Sox think he can one day be.
But here's the thing: The White Sox will undoubtedly be chasing a championship in 2022. And Kopech will be pitching in games that count toward that goal. He did last year, too, so he's not without the feeling of doing that. But he was doing it in smaller chunks, pitching an inning or two at a time.
So while Kopech can be given the freedom to grow in 2022, part of the White Sox' title hopes will fall to him, as well. And when there are questions over what Kopech can do and how often, that's very much worth noting.
"It is important to be able to develop young players at the big league level in order to have something that's sustainable. So finding a way to grow Michael into the regular starter's workload so we have that for the '23 season and beyond is going to be important," White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said during the GM meetings in November. "We think we'll be able to do it in a way that, hopefully, maximizes his effectiveness in '22 and leads to more wins for us in '22. But at the same time, we have to remain cognizant that he's an important part of the future, too."
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As good as Kopech mostly was as a relief arm and doubleheader spot starter last year, there were times when he wasn't. He had a 1.53 ERA before the All-Star break and a 5.56 ERA after it, including a 6.43 ERA after the trade deadline. As much negative attention as Craig Kimbrel got for giving up runs after his high profile acquisition, Kimbrel and Kopech gave up runs in almost the same number of outings from July 31 on: 11 games for Kimbrel and 10 for Kopech, including their playoff appearances. Kopech gave up six runs in three postseason innings.
On top of those results, Kopech is also going to be new to this whole starting-for-a-full-major-league-season thing, and Hahn already forecasted another "creative" approach to Kopech's usage for 2022, one that won't wear him out by the time he'll figure to be needed in October. Kopech logged fewer than 70 innings last season -- a total obviously impacted by a midseason stay on the injured list with a hamstring injury -- and while no one should expect him to throw 200 in his first full year in the rotation, he should be expected to throw a lot more than 70.
"We're not going to be looking at him as coming in and giving us 200 (innings) next year," Hahn said. "We're going to try to get him as consistently strong as possible throughout the entire season, because he was a little stronger in the first half than the second. ... We're hopeful we'll find the right balance between his workload and the rest and the pacing of next season that come October, we look around the room and say, 'This guy deserves to be in the mix of starting a postseason game."
Of course, this is still Kopech we're talking about, and there wasn't much about his 2021 season that went against the idea he can be a frontline starter for these White Sox.
"I think he's got everything that he needs to be one of the most elite starting pitchers in baseball," Lynn said in November. "He's got the desire to be great. He's obviously got the physical ability to do it all. ... Not only does he want to be good, he's willing to listen and learn and do everything he can to do the best possible. When you have all those things, you don't know how good it's going to be, but you know there's a good chance with his stuff he's going to be a pretty good starting pitcher."
"Obviously the stuff is electric, there's no question there," Giolito said in November. "I think (moving to the rotation) would be a great step for him. I think that would be very beneficial to us as a team, having another right-hander that throws really hard and has really nasty stuff overall. And at the same time, he has the drive for it. I think he's ready to take that step."
Just because someone's a question mark doesn't mean there's a hole on the roster. Cease and Carlos Rodón were huge question marks a year ago, and the two of them turned out to be pretty big reasons why the White Sox boasted the American League's best starting rotation during the 2021 regular season. Kopech's got the same kind of high-level potential those two did, the potential those two reached or made their way toward reaching last year. Kopech doing the same in 2022 would give the White Sox another shot at counting the rotation as a huge strength.
But the uncertainty doesn't exist in a vacuum, and the White Sox are coming off a disappointingly brief postseason appearance. That disappointment was generated by the entire team, but an awful lot of it had to do with the rotation, none of the four guys who started games lasting five innings. That's led to a lot of cries for offseason improvement in that area, even with a full five-man group. The White Sox could (and should) opt to stick with Kopech in the rotation. But if his relative lack of experience and uneven results from 2021 turn into more ups and downs in 2022, that could put a lot of pressure on Hahn to add starting pitching at the deadline. And what would that do for Kopech's continued development?
In other words, it's a fascinating tightrope the White Sox are going to walk in regards to Kopech in a year they're trying to win the World Series. Kopech's talent, ability and long-term prospects give plenty of reason to believe it'll be well worth it. But the sheer fact that it's so hard to figure out what to expect highlights both the upside and downside of the venture.
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