On paper, the 2024 Bears have opened the season by beating the team they were expected to beat and losing the two games on the road in which they were underdogs.
But it's not the 1-2 record that has alarm bells going off around Chicago. It's how the offense, specifically the line and scheme, have looked in back-to-back losses to the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts that has concern bubbling up.
Bad offenses are nothing new in Chicago. The Bears have had a laundry list of underperforming and downright impotent offenses. Offensive coordinators arrive and disappoint. Wide receivers show up but don't show out.
But usually, the quarterback is part of the problem. For 40 years, the quarterback has been what the Bears franchise has been missing. Having an ineffective offense with an issue or question mark under center is old hat in Chicago.
Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has been the least of the Bears' worries through three games. He stumbled in his debut but has improved over the past two weeks and has shown no alarming red flags that would suggest the Bears whiffed on the pick. Williams can play better. He needs to stop turning the ball over. He needs to continue to get on the same page with his receivers and polish his pocket presence.
But if we're making a list of the issues that plague the Bears' offense through three weeks (how the hell are we here just three weeks in?) Williams doesn't even make the cut.
So, what's the problem? Can it be fixed?
Chicago Bears
That's where we start the final edition of overreactions:
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OVERREACTION? I'd love to say yes, but ...
I was high on Waldron when the Bears hired him last offseason. He wasn't the top choice on my list (we'll get to that later), but from the people I talked to around the league, it seemed like the Bears hit a home run with the Waldron hire.
You've heard all the pros for Waldron. He's a great teacher and an excellent communicator. He was lauded as a versatile play-caller who could adapt his attack to the personnel at his disposal. His scheme was supposed to be unpredictable and ask less of Williams as his developmental arc begins.
While the teacher part might be accurate, the rest hasn't come to pass yet.
The Bears' offense has been unable to run the ball through three games and can't protect the quarterback.
They rank dead last in offensive DVOA through three weeks. The Cleveland Browns, who are trotting out the corpse of Deshaun Watson, rank 31st.
The Bears rank 28th in Expected Points Added per play on offense. Only the Panthers, Dolphins, Browns, and Titans are worse.
They rank 30th in success rate. Only the Panthers and Browns are worse.
They rank 30th in rush EPA and 31 in rushing success rate. Only former offensive coordinator Luke Getsy's Raiders run the ball at a worse clip than the Bears.
High-ticket running back D'Andre Swift is averaging 1.8 yards per carry. He's averaging less than 2 yards per carry before contact and less than 2 yards per carry after. The blocking is terrible, he's not seeing the holes when they are open, and he's not making anyone miss.
All of that has led to Williams dropping back over 100 times in the past two games. The result? Williams ranks 28th in adjusted EPA (-0.174), 27th in success rate (39.7 percent), and 26th in Completion Percentage Over Expectation (-4.4). Williams' company at the bottom of the EPA charts are Watson, the benched Bryce Young, Will Levis, and Trevor Lawrence.
The Bears aren't making Williams' life easier. While he has the talent to elevate a rickety offense, he wasn't supposed to be asked to do so after three games.
But other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?
It's too early to definitively call him a bust, but there's no reason this should be the conversation after three games.
OVERREACTION? No
Six of the candidates the Bears interviewed for their open offensive coordinator position got hired this past cycle. That list includes Kubiak (Saints), Kingsbury (Commanders), Greg Roman (Chargers), Liam Coen (Bucs), Zach Robinson (Falcons), and Waldron.
Of those six offenses, the Bears rank six out of six in points, yards, yards per play, EPA/ play, and DVOA.
To quote good friend Mark Potash of The Chicago Sun-Times: "How the hell are you last?"
The Bears had a golden ticket in the right to draft Williams and got to shake every branch of the Shanahan/McVay tree to find the right guy to lead their offense and develop Williams. The early returns are that they chose poorly.
Again.
Kubiak was No. 1 on my list in the offseason (Waldron was No. 2). It's no surprise that the guy who worked under Kyle Shanahan has a good feel, at least early on, for how to get the best out of the Saints personnel. That includes invigorating Alvin Kamara, who looked washed last season. The Saints' offense might start to dip due to injuries to their offensive line, but I like what Kubiak has done so far.
The Bears interviewed Kingsbury to get intel on Williams. I understand why they didn't hire him but I've really liked how easy he has made things for No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels early on.
Kingsbury's attack looked stale at the end of his tenure with the Arizona Cardinals but that hasn't been the case early in Washington.
Entering the season, Williams was supposed to have the easier runway to success due to the Bears' supporting cast. However, both Williams and Daniels play for defensive head coaches with new offensive coordinators and for franchises that have not historically been the cream of the crop.
Williams has DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and the banged-up Keenan Allen. Daniel has Terry McLaurin and Luke McCaffery.
A lot of things appear equal. Williams has more weapons, but Daniels is the No. 2 ranked quarterback in EPA/play, while Williams is 28th.
Why might that be?
OVERREACTION? Yes
Before the Bears ' Week 2 trip to Houston, I was skeptical that their defense belonged in the league's upper echelon.
The Bears' defensive rise last year coincided with a run of bad quarterbacks. They beat up on Josh Dobbs, Desmond Ridder, Joe Flacco, and a still-returning-to-form Kyler Murray. They did get the best of Jared Goff and held Jordan Love somewhat in check, but I remained skeptical.
But the Bears clamped down on CJ Stroud and a Texans offense that I think is pretty good, especially in the second half. The Texans getting obliterated by the Vikings made me pause, but I still think the Bears' defense is pretty good.
It's not as good as the Steelers, but it's a unit that can win games on its own. However, it's also very thin at key spots, so a couple of injuries could quickly unravel it.
OVERREACTION? Yes
I understand watching the offensive line and thinking: "What the hell is this? Do something to fix it!"
At this moment, I don't think Amegadjie is the answer. What's the plan? Bench Braxton Jones and insert a third-round rookie who missed most of his senior season at an Ivy League school and all of the offseason to protect Williams' blindside? Are you going to bench Darnell Wright? Have Amegadjie play guard?
That's just not a viable option right now. Maybe it will become one later this season, but the Amegadjie pick was always a pick for the future, not 2024.
OVERREACTION: Yes
The Bears' 1-2 start has little to do with Williams. As noted above, Williams can be better, and I expect him to improve as long as the Bears' offensive line and the coaching staff don't steer him into bad habits early on.
Fields' success in Pittsburgh is a welcome sight. He was dealt a bad hand in Chicago, and a fresh start with an A-plus organization and good coaches was needed. But he's still only averaging 173 yards per game through the air and has been asked to do very little for a Steelers team with a dominant defense. That's good coaching, but Fields being 3-0 with only one interception isn't a sign that the Bears should have traded for a haul.
Would Alt and Frazier have helped this beleaguered O-line? No question.
But the best asset in the NFL is a talented quarterback on a rookie deal. The Bears needed to reset the quarterback contract clock, and Fields didn't show near enough as a passer to give them reason to pass on a potential once-in-a-franchise chance to draft a quarterback with Williams' upside.
The Bears made the right call. Be happy for Fields, but there was never any real debate inside Halas Hall.
OVERREACTION? Not at all.
If it doesn't work out with Williams, that will be all the proof we need. There's no other explanation.
