This week, the Chicago area went from 50 degree temperatures to snow flurries and below zero wind chills, with a warming trend and rain in the weekend forecast. But what exactly does Chicago's Christmas forecast hold?
According to NBC 5 Meteorologist Alicia Roman, those hoping for snow on Christmas aren't likely to get their wish.
When looking at Chicago's extended weather outlook, Roman noted that Chicago expects to see above-average temperatures between Dec. 20 and 26.
That means the National Weather Service predicts temperatures will likely be above 34 or 35 degrees, Roman said, though models could change.
Warming trend in Chicago's weekend forecast
"Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?" Roman said Friday, of Chicago's extended weather outlook. "You might just be dreaming."
And while Friday started out cold, with temperatures in the single digits and even lower wind chills, a warm-up was on deck, beginning with temperatures reaching into the upper 20s and low 30s Friday afternoon.
"Cold this morning, but not as frigid as yesterday morning," Roman said, calling out Wednesday's wind chills as low as -20 as an Arctic blast swept through.
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By Saturday, temperatures were expected to hit a high of 40 degrees, Roman said, with rain moving in by afternoon.
Around 1 p.m., snowflakes could mix with showers to the west Roman said, with all precipitation expected to change over to liquid by around 3 p.m., as the rain pushes to the east.
By 4 p.m., the entire Chicago area will see scattered showers, with the rain lasting Saturday night into Sunday morning.
While those showers will gradually come to an end Sunday mid-morning, another round of rain was expected Sunday night, with rain expected to last through the Monday morning commute.
Temperatures Sunday were expected to be even warmer, Roman said, with highs in the low-to-mid 40s, and a high of 52 degrees expected Monday.
What Chicago's Christmas weather typically looks like
According to the National Weather Service, a “White Christmas” is defined as a holiday where there is at least one inch of snow on the ground, regardless of whether that snow fell on Christmas Day.
Data from the NWS shows that Chicago has had a “White Christmas” approximately 41% of the time since recordkeeping began in 1884.
That number includes 2022, when there was one inch of snow on the ground for the holiday, according to the NWS weather almanac.
The most snow Chicago has ever received on Christmas Day itself was 5.1 inches of accumulation, a mark that was set back in 1950.
The following year, Chicago recorded its largest snow depth, with 17 inches of snow on the ground for the holiday.
The warmest temperature ever recorded on Christmas in Chicago, dating back to 1871, is 64 degrees, which was hit in 1982.
The coldest high temperature recorded in Chicago on Christmas actually came the following year in 1983, with a high temperature of negative-5 degrees. The low temperature that day was a positively frigid negative-17, the coldest temperature ever recorded on Christmas.
In 2022, Chicago’s high temperature was only 14 degrees, making it the seventh-coldest Christmas on record.
In 2023, Chicago's Christmas temperatures were above average.
