The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center is growing more confident in the emergence of a La Niña weather pattern later this year, and it would have significant impacts on fall and winter weather in the Chicago area.
We’re only about halfway through summer in the Northern Hemisphere, but there is at least some interest in what kind of weather the Chicago area could experience during the fall.
According to the latest predictions from the Farmer’s Almanac, you may want to have an umbrella and a thick coat ready…..or even some snow boots.
Here’s the lowdown, and what the National Weather Service has to say about the coming season.
What Does the Farmer’s Almanac Say?
According to the Farmer’s Almanac, the expectation for autumn is for a “frosty and wet” fall season around the Great Lakes, including in the Chicago area.
The forecast calls for an early-season heavy snowfall in November, with rainy conditions in other parts of the country.
How Accurate Are These Predictions?
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The publication claims a success rate of 80-to-85% with their predictions, though many media studies have contested that figure.
Many meteorologists dispute the accuracy and the methodology employed by the publication. One such study, conducted by the University of Illinois and cited by Popular Mechanics, holds that the Old Farmer’s Almanac is only correct 52% of the time, which essentially represents the odds of a coin flip landing on either heads or tails.
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What Does the National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration Say?
The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is leaning very slightly toward above average temperatures in the forecast for at least the early part of the fall, with models only running through the end of October.
Parts of the northeast and the western United States are in the “likely above” category, with only western Alaska facing the possibility of “below-average” temperatures.
It should be noted that the agency also says there is a possibility of a La Niña weather pattern emerging in the latter stages of the year. According to the University of Illinois, fall seasons during La Niña patterns are typically colder and wetter than average, though it all depends on how strong the emerging pattern is.
There is also a chance of “neutral” conditions, which would not impact the Chicago area.
