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Hurricane Milton churned Wednesday toward a potentially catastrophic collision along the west coast of Florida, where some residents insisted they would stay after millions of people across 15 different Florida counties were told to evacuate as officials warned that stragglers would face grim odds of surviving.
The Tampa Bay area, home to more than 3.3 million people, faced the possibility of widespread destruction after avoiding direct hits from major hurricanes for more than a century. The National Hurricane Center predicted Milton, a Category 5 hurricane during much of its approach, would likely weaken but remain a major hurricane when it makes landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Early Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center downgraded Milton to a Category 4. With winds between 130 and 156 miles per hour, the storm was likely to be "devastating," with "catastrophic damage" expected.
What part of Florida will Milton hit?
The ferocious storm could land a once-in-a-century direct hit on Tampa, St. Petersburg and Sarasota, engulfing the populous region with towering storm surges and turning debris from Helene’s devastation 12 days ago into projectiles.
“This is going to be an intense disaster for Sarasota County,” Sarasota County Emergency Management Chief Sandra Tapfumaneyi said in a briefing early Wednesday. “Evacuate now if you have not done so already.”
In Pinellas County, which includes St. Petersburg and Clearwater, officials say the window to evacuate was rapidly closing.
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"This is it, folks,” Emergency Management Director Cathie Perkins said at a Wednesday morning news conference. “Those of you who were punched during Hurricane Helene, this is going to be a knockout. You need to get out and you need to get out now.”
“Everybody in Tampa Bay should assume we are going to be ground zero,” Perkins added.
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The hurricane also sparked a Tornado watch in more than 20 Florida counties, including the Tampa area, Florida Keys and Miami-Dade county, with a tornado touching down on Interstate 75.
Gov. Ron DeSantis Wednesday said to people choosing to remain home on barrier islands, “just know that if you get 10 feet of storm surge, you can’t just hunker down with that.”
“If you’re on the southern part of this storm, you are going to get storm surge,” DeSantis said.
“It’s churning massive amounts of water, and that water is going to come out,” he added. “Man, if you’re anywhere in the eye or south, you are going to get major storm surge.”
Latest Florida evacuation orders: List of counties
Fifteen Florida counties, home to more than 7.2 million people, were under mandatory evacuation orders as of Wednesday morning.
Here's the full list:
- Charlotte County
- Citrus County
- Collier County
- Flagler County
- Hernando County
- Hillsborough County
- Lee County
- Levy County
- Manatee County
- Marion County
- Pasco County
- Pinellas County
- Sarasota County
- St. Johns County
- Volusia County
Multiple other Florida counties had voluntary evacuation orders, including Seminole County, Palm Beach County, Osceola County, Orange County, Nassau County and Miami-Dade County. A full list from the Florida officials can be found here.
As of 6 a.m. Wednesday, the storm was forecast to hit near Sarasota, just south of Tampa.
"Perhaps landfall in this area, the Florida barrier islands," NBC 5 Meteorologist Alicia Roman said.
By Thursday, the hurricane was expected to move through the state and into the eastern part, with winds of around 80 mph.
"But by then, the damage will be done," Roman said.
What time is Milton hitting Florida?
According to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the storm will make landfall late Wednesday along the center of Florida’s west coast.
The hurricane center had previously said landfall could come late Wednesday or early Thursday, around 1 a.m.
As the storm makes landfall, it is expected to bring with it devastating storm surges, depending on where tides are when it arrives. Forecasters with the NHC are warning of storm surges of up to 10-to-15 feet in an area stretching between the Anclote River and Englewood, including heavily populated areas around Tampa Bay and Clearwater Beach.
Large and dangerous waves will also occur with the storm surge, causing even more dangerous conditions near the water.
Tropical storm-force winds are expected to reach the east coast of Florida by the late evening hours, according to official forecasts.
Heavy rain is expected to continue throughout the morning hours and well into the afternoon, leading to potentially “catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding” in many parts of west-central Florida.
By the time the storm moves out, rainfall totals of 6-to-12 inches, with localized totals of up to 18 inches, are possible, especially in a stretch of land between Tampa and Orlando, according to the National Weather Service.
Thursday could also see tropical storm conditions develop along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, with gusty winds and roughly 2-to-4 feet of storm surge, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Milton is expected to continue moving away from the coasts of Florida into the evening hours, and will start to have greater impacts in the Bahamas, according to forecast models.
Flash flooding is still possible in parts of Florida as the storm passes through.
Hurricane Milton Live Tracker
As of early Wednesday, the hurricane, with winds of 160 miles-per-hour, was in the Gulf of Mexico, north of Cuba and southwest of Florida. A live Hurricane Milton tracker can be found below.
What is the highest category for a hurricane?
Hurricane categories are based on what is known as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The rating categorizes hurricanes on a scale of 1 to 5 based on sustained wind speeds, according to the National Weather Service.
"This scale estimates potential property damage," the NWS reports. "Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous, however, and require preventative measures."
The wind speeds are calculated using a one-minute average.
Here's how they break down:
| Category One Hurricane Winds 74-95 mph. Very dangerous winds will produce some damage |
| Category Two Hurricane Winds 96-110 mph. Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage |
| Category Three Hurricane Winds 111-129 mph. Devastating damage will occur |
| Category Four Hurricane Winds 130-156 mph. Catastrophic damage will occur |
| Category Five Hurricane Winds 157 mph or higher. Catastrophic damage will occur |
In a Category Five storm, "a high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse," according to the scale.
"Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months," the description states.
Is there a Category 6?
Earlier this year, some experts proposed adding a Category 6 to the ranking for storms with winds that exceed 192 miles per hour, though no such category has been officially created so far.
Several experts told The Associated Press they don't think that category is necessary. They said it could even give the wrong signal to the public because it's based on wind speed, while water is by far the deadliest killer in hurricanes.
See the latest list here.
What causes a hurricane?
Hurricanes often start as tropical waves that combine with warm ocean waters, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They may also be fueled by thunderstorms. The weather system moves west as warm ocean air rises into it, and that creates a low pressure area underneath it, NOAA said. Air rises and cools, and that forms clouds and thunderstorms.
Hurricanes have maximum sustained winds — the highest one-minute average wind speed at a particular point in time — of 74 mph (120 kph) or higher. If a tropical cyclone has maximum sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph (63 kph to 120 kph), it’s called a tropical storm. If maximum sustained winds are less than 39 mph (63 kph), it’s called a tropical depression.
Hurricanes typically occur during hurricane season, which in the Atlantic basin occurs each year from June 1 to Nov. 30.
