It's not uncommon for hurricanes to threaten the Florida coast in October, but the rapidly evolving Hurricane Milton is not quite the norm, experts say.
Milton is a bit atypical since it formed so far west and is expected to cross the entire southern Gulf, according to Daniel Brown, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.
“It’s not uncommon to get a hurricane threat in October along the west coast of Florida, but forming all the way in the southwest Gulf and then striking Florida is a little bit more unusual,” Brown said. Most storms that form in October and hit Florida come from the Caribbean, not the southwestern Gulf, he said.
Milton "rapidly" intensified to a dangerous Category 5 storm in a matter of hours, threatening a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and setting the stage for potential mass evacuations less than two weeks after a catastrophic Hurricane Helene swamped the coastline.
The increase from a Category 4 to a Category 5 happened just before 11 a.m. as Milton had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.
Adding to the unexpected elements is the location of where Milton could make landfall.
It’s the “black swan” worst case scenario that MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel and other hurricane experts have worried about for years.
Weather
Part of it is that for some reason – experts say it’s mostly luck with a bit of geography – Tampa hasn’t been smacked with a major hurricane since the deadly 1921 hurricane that had 11 feet (3.3 meters) of storm surge that inundated downtown Tampa, though there wasn’t much to the city at the time, Emanuel said. Since then, a metropolis has grown and it’s full of people who think they’ve lived through big storms when they haven’t, he said.
“It’s a huge population. It’s very exposed, very inexperienced and that’s a losing proposition,” Emanuel, who has studied hurricanes for 40 years, said. “I always thought Tampa would be the city to worry about most.”
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He said the whole basin is shaped and low-lying so it’s quite susceptible to flooding.
Here's the latest:
Where is Hurricane Milton expected to hit?
Milton's center could come ashore Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area, and it could remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean. That would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Appalachian Mountains.
A hurricane warning was issued for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan state, and much of Florida’s west coast was under hurricane and storm surge watches. Florida’s Lake Okeechobee, which often floods during intense storms, was also under a hurricane watch.
“This is the real deal here with Milton,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said at a news conference. “If you want to take on Mother Nature, she wins 100% of the time.”
Forecasters warned of a possible 8- to 12-foot storm surge (2.4 to 3.6 meters) in Tampa Bay and said flash and river flooding could result from 5 to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain in mainland Florida and the Keys, with as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) in places.
The Tampa Bay area is still cleaning up extensive damage from Helene and its powerful surge.
When is Hurricane Milton set to make landfall?
According to the National Hurricane Center’s Live Hurricane Tracker, Milton will make landfall on the west coast of Florida on Wednesday evening. It’s expected to be a Category 3 storm when it hits the shore and will barrel across the state through major cities like Tampa and Orlando overnight into Thursday.
On the current track, Milton is forecast to reach peak intensity Tuesday morning. However, it is forecast to weaken as it approaches landfall, which would be late Wednesday between 6 p.m. ET (5 p.m. CT) and midnight (11 p.m. CT).
Milton’s center was about 130 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 720 miles southwest of Tampa late Monday morning, moving east-southeast at 9 mph, according to the hurricane center.
What else to know
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis pointed out while briefing reporters Monday afternoon that the hurricane is already far stronger than what was predicted two days ago.
“This is a ferocious hurricane,” DeSantis said.
DeSantis cautioned that while the storm is expected to weaken by the time it reaches Florida, residents shouldn't bank on it, and said Milton will cause destruction regardless.
“At the strength it is now, this is a really, really strong storm. The effects of that, not just from the storm surge but from wind damage and debris, will be really, really significant,” DeSantis said. “This is not a storm you want to take a risk on.”
About 7 million people were urged to evacuate Florida in 2017 as Hurricane Irma bore down. The exodus jammed freeways, led to long lines at gas stations and left evacuees in some cases vowing never to evacuate again.
Building on lessons learned during Irma and other previous storms, Florida is staging emergency fuel for gas vehicles and charging stations for electric vehicles along evacuation routes, Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said Sunday.
“We are preparing ... for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma,” Guthrie said.
Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, ordered evacuations for areas adjacent to Tampa Bay and for all mobile and manufactured homes by Tuesday night.
“Yes, this stinks. We know that, and it comes on the heels of where a lot of us are still recovering from Hurricane Helene,” Sheriff Chad Chronister said. “But if you safeguard your families, you will be alive.”
If residents don't evacuate, it could put first responders in jeopardy or make rescues impossible: “If you remain there, you could die and my men and women could die trying to rescue you,” Hillsborough Fire Rescue Chief Jason Dougherty said. “Help them by leaving.”
DeSantis expanded his state of emergency declaration Sunday to 51 counties and said Floridians should prepare for more power outages and disruption, making sure they have a week’s worth of food and water and are ready to hit the road.
On beaches in the St. Pete Beach area, where Helene's storm surge flooded homes and businesses, lifeguards removed beach chairs and other items Monday that could become projectiles in hurricane winds. Schools including the University of Central Florida in Orlando announced they would close in the middle of the week, and Walt Disney World said it was monitoring the hurricane but operating normally for the time being.
All road tolls were suspended in western central Florida. The St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport said it would close after the last flight Tuesday, and Tampa International Airport said it planned to halt airline and cargo flights starting Tuesday morning.
All classes and school activities in Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, closed preemptively Monday through Wednesday, and schools were being converted into shelters. Officials in Tampa freed all city garages to residents hoping to protect their cars from flooding, including electric vehicles. The vehicles must be left on the third floor or higher in each garage.
The coastal Mexican state of Yucatan announced it was cancelling classes in most towns and cities along the coast, after forecasters predicted Milton would brush the northern part of the state. The cancellations included its most heavily populated Gulf coast cities, like Progreso; the capital, Merida; and the natural protected area of Celestun, known for its flamingoes.
It has been two decades since so many storms crisscrossed Florida in such a short period of time. In 2004, an unprecedented five storms struck Florida within six weeks, including three hurricanes that pummeled central Florida.
Although Tampa hasn’t been hit directly by a hurricane in over a century, other parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast are recovering from such storms in the past two years. The Fort Myers area in southwest Florida is still rebuilding from Hurricane Ian, which caused $112 billion in damage in 2022. Three hurricanes have thrashed Florida’s Big Bend region in just 13 months, including Helene.
