With leaves starting to fall and Halloween fast approaching, it’s natural to think about upcoming snowy days in the city of Chicago.
Chicago has already passed the date where the city sees its first trace of snow, but will we see wintry precipitation this month?
According to the National Weather Service, Chicago typically sees its first trace of snowfall, defined as snowfall of less than one-tenth inch, by Oct. 31.
This year, the city has not yet seen its first trace of snowfall, and judging by the extended forecast in the area, it may be a while before the city finally sees its first taste of winter.
According to NWS data, Chicago typically sees its first measurable snowfall, defined as any amount of snow of one-tenth inch or more, by Nov. 18.
The Climate Prediction Center isn’t confident that it will be cold enough to hit that mark this year. According to the latest modeling from the CPC, there is a “70-to-80% chance that the city, along with the rest of Illinois, will see above-average temperatures between Nov. 14-22.
The three-to-four week outlook shows similar expectations through the beginning of December, with a 60-to-70% chance of above-average temperatures.
For context, the average high temperature in Chicago will dip below 50 degrees on Wednesday, and by the end of the month, the average high in the city will be around 41 degrees, according to NWS historical data.
Local
Temperatures this week are expected to remain in the upper-50s, with a chance for a 60-degree day also present, according to forecast models.
All models are also leaning toward above-average precipitation for the Chicago area during that time, meaning that any dip in temperatures could be accompanied by precipitation, whether that be rain or snow.
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For those curious, the latest Chicago has gone without a trace to snow to begin the season was Dec. 5, 1999. The latest first measurable snowfall of the year occurred in Dec. 2021, when the city didn’t see one-tenth of an inch of snow or more until three days after Christmas.
