There’s nothing like waking up on Christmas morning to see snow on the ground, but will Chicago experience that in 2024?
While forecast models are still being dialed in with the holiday a bit more than a week away, history paints an interesting picture of a snowy holiday.
According to National Weather Service forecasters, a holiday is considered a “White Christmas” when there is at least one inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25.
According to research from NBC 5 Storm Team Meteorologist Kevin Jeanes and the National Weather Service, ‘White Christmases’ haven’t been common around Chicago recently. In fact, we’ve only had three since 2010, with the most recent occurring in 2022.
Over the last 50 years, Chicago has had an inch or more of snow on the ground for Christmas 19 times.
Snow-lovers never stood a chance in 2023, with thermometers nearly reaching 60 degrees. It ended up being the second-warmest Christmas Day in 153 years of records.
Local
SO WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE FOR DECEMBER 25, 2024?
First off, the temperature is an easier trend to accurately forecast in the long term, with the holiday nine days away. Precipitation and storm tracks, however, can vary all the way up to the day before an event.
Feeling out of the loop? We'll catch you up on the Chicago news you need to know. Sign up for the weekly> Chicago Catch-Up newsletter.
This year, the temperature trend is looking warmer. While we’ll have another cold blast around Dec. 21-22, we should begin to warm up by the 23rd. Christmas Eve may see highs in the mid-30s, and it looks like we’ll hover close to 40 degrees on Christmas Day.
THE MODELS
Ensemble model runs in both the European and GFS models have stayed consistent within themselves, but still vary considerably from each other. The European model has a warmer pattern, but does bring a storm system in from the southwest that could bring rain or a wintry mix late on Christmas Day and into the following day.
The GFS models show colder temperatures, but it does show the same storm system developing. This model has the storm tracking slightly farther north, which would allow cold enough air to move into the region to bring an inch or two of snow, not rain, for the holiday.
Long story short, it’s too early to call. However the European model has been historically more accurate, and the Climate Prediction Center is favoring the warmer-than-average temperature outlook for Christmas Day. So the forecast is leaning to a mild Christmas, and maybe a wintry mix that night and into the following morning.
