From tornadoes, to 60 degree temperatures, to potential heavy snowfall in the forecast, the first week of Meteorological spring in the Chicago area is shaping up to be an interesting one.
According to the NBC 5 Storm Team, Thursday is expected to remain quiet, calm and dry, with high temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s. However, a "tricky, complex storm system" moving in from the southwest will on Friday creep towards the Chicago area, bringing with it uncertain winter weather impacts, ranging from heavy rainfall to heavy, accumulating snow.
Additionally, different weather models leading up to the event show varying information surrounding snowfall totals and locations impacted. As those models continue to change, here's what they show as of Thursday morning.
Winter Storm Watch
As a winter weather system begins to take shape to the south and west, a winter storm watch for a handful of counties in the Chicago area will go into effect at 6 a.m. Friday, lasting until 11 p.m.
According to the National Weather Service, the counties included in the watch are Kane, DuPage, LaSalle, Kendall, Grundy, Kankakee, Cook, and Will Counties in Illinois, along with Lake, Porter, Newton and Jasper Counties in Indiana.
According to the NWS, rain changing to heavy snow is possible in those areas, with five to eight inches of snow accumulation possible.
Local
Additionally, winds gusting as high as 45 miles per hour can be expected.
Currently, Lake, DeKalb and McHenry counties are not included in the watch. However, as forecast models shift, that could change, the NBC 5 Storm Team warns.
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How Much Snow, Rain Could Fall?
According to the NBC 5 Storm Team, snowfall will depend on two factors: temperatures, and where exactly the predicted heavy snow band will set up shop.
Previous forecast models indicated the snow band will be located in the northern counties. However, more recent models show counites to the south, including those in Northwest Indiana, will be the ones most impacted by heavy and quick snowfall, of between one and two inches per hour.
Additionally, temperatures Friday in some areas may remain above 32 degrees, which means the precipitation would remain in liquid form, potentially resulting in heavy, soaking downpours.
The NBC 5 Storm Team uses a variety of models to help it predict the weather, two of which are the European model and the Global model. And though the models Thursday are showing closer agreement regarding snowfall location -- with higher totals predicted to the south and southeast counties -- forecasted snow totals still reflect a wide range.
For example, one model shows between one and three inches of snowfall expected at O'Hare International Airport. However, another one shows upwards of six, or even 10 inches.
Timing of the Storm
According to the NBC 5 Storm Team, the system is expected to be an "afternoon event," with the afternoon and evening commute likely impacted.
Friday morning, temperatures are expected to remain in mid-upper 30s, keeping the expected precipitation in the form of rain. However, around 2 p.m. as temperatures drop into the low 30s, that precipitation is expected to transition into heavy snow, falling at a rate of around one-to-two inches per hour.
According to the NBC 5 Storm Team, forecast models currently show heavy snow is predicted to continue through 5 p.m. in Southern Cook, Will, Kankakee Counties in Illinois, as well as Jasper, Porter, Newton and Lake Counties in Indiana.
Friday evening, the storm is expected to move out. By Saturday and Sunday, skies are predicted to be mostly sunny with temperatures in the low 40s, forecast models currently show.
Forecast Remains Fluid
As models continues to shift, the forecast remains fluid, the NBC 5 Storm Team cautions.
