The Chicago area could potentially see its first snowflakes of the season on Monday, but how does that compare with the average first snowfall of the season in the city?
According to current forecasts, the area will see a storm system roll through on Monday, with scattered showers expected throughout the region.
Couple those showers with well-below average temperatures, with highs struggling to reach 40 degrees, and some snowflakes could fall as well, giving Chicago its chance at its first snowfall of the season.
So how does that compare to historical averages? According to the National Weather Service, the average date that the city of Chicago sees its first traces of snow typically falls around Oct. 31. The earliest first trace of snowfall that has ever been recorded in the city occurred on Sept. 25, according to NWS, and the latest occured on Dec. 5, 1999.
If trace snowfall is detected at O’Hare International Airport on Monday, it would mean that the city is two weeks ahead of “schedule” for the first flakes of the season.
For context, last year Chicago didn’t see its first trace snowfall until Nov. 12.
In fact, last year was an historic one when it came to snowfall. According to records, the first measurable snowfall, defined by NWS as one-tenth of an inch of snow or more, occurred on Dec. 28, 2021, the latest first measurable snowfall in recorded history.
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On average, Chicago sees its first measurable snowfall on Nov. 18.
For those concerned that we could see accumulations of snow on Monday, don’t fret. A combination of above-freezing temperatures and warm ground temperatures should ensure that no accumulation takes place on Monday.
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In parts of northwest Indiana, lake-effect snow and rain showers could potentially occur, especially in Porter and LaPorte counties, due to winds blowing out of the northwest over the surface of Lake Michigan. Those winds will cool the air and push moisture toward those areas, leading to a more significant weather event in those locations.
“Thundersnow” could potentially occur along the shores of Lake Michigan as well, with minor lakeshore flooding also possible due to the winds.
For the latest details, continue to visit the NBC 5 app throughout the day on Monday.
